Re: H1N5 (and Bakker's virus extinction hypothesis) now H5N1

[Adrienne Mayor <afmayor@aol.com>]

I don't, but I'm sure you can find out some estimates, see McNeill's  
Plagues and Peoples (1976) or Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel, and  
the new book "1491," and other sources on the devastation of  
populations by smallpox in the new world. Some tribes were wiped out,  
eg the Mandans, others lost more than 75% pop. Pawnees numbered about  
20,000 in 1832, 40 years later there were only 2000 (and only 500 in  
1900). Not all died from smalpox or other European diseases, of  
course, but the numbers are impressive.
Adrienne

>>On May 14, 2006, at 3:48 PM, John Wilkins wrote:

>>Adrienne, do we know the fatality rate and rate of spread for  
these plagues?

>>Nobody denies, I think, that plagues are common and nasty. I think  
the question is whether there is evidence that a plague could be so  
severe as to wipe out all members of a population. Even the Black  
Death was "only" about 25% fatal.