Re: what would happen if....?

[frank bliss <frank@blissnet.com>]

Owning a cattleranch gives me some insight into such matters.  Cattle 
herds are usually surrounded by fences and are virtually entirely 
dependent on water sources managed by man.  Situationally, a few pure 
bread cattle might be in a large enough well watered area to survive 
until the fencing becomes ineffective to hold them into their micro 
environment.  This would have to occur rapidly because population 
increase in the fenced in island population would be rapid until the 
grass available would be used up. (roughly doubling every year).  
Inbreeding of these island populations would become an issue as well as 
predatory problems as more mobile predators (reintroduced wolves) would 
also nibble away at the populations.  In cold climates, almost all 
cattle herds are dependent on extra man provided feed to make it 
through the winter so their survival rate would be very low as well as 
high calf mortality rates.  Overall, these problems might be overcome 
by very small groups in very large grass pastures of hundreds of square 
miles in more temperate climates that I live here in northern wyoming.  
Herds stuck in summer pastures with pine trees will spontaneously abort 
due to eating pine needles in the winter (turpintine).    In domestic 
cattle, the selection process would be against features we desire such 
as large muscle groups with no horns and for features that promote 
survival and early reproduction in the wild.  Resistance to parasites 
and diseases that we currently vaccinate and dip for would be selected 
for.  I personally doubt that most herds would survive the first winter 
and most would not survive the 20 years for the fences to fall down to 
effectively make the region open range.   When left to their own 
devices, Bulls impregnate yearling cattle and as a result most of the 
yearlings would die without human intervention during birthing.  
Aggression in Bulls would also increase through selective pressure 
causing some decrease in diversity.  Bulls still can't impregnate many 
more than 30 or so cows a year.  The number of bulls would rapidly 
escalate due to the lack of castration during yearly brandings and 
fights would increase.  The one thing they do have going for a long 
term survival is that there are just a huge number of bovine 
individuals in every ecosystem in the world.  Some of them would 
survive but the population would certainly bottleneck for decades and 
suffer inbreeding for many more. The eventual result may resemble those 
of Chetah genetics (the whole population may have originated from one 
pair), or even human genetics (which seems to have undergone a 
bottleneck or two also.). . Typical cattle are even too stupid to paw 
at the snow to get to the grass under the snowcover.  Horses and Bison 
have that figured out.  It is more likely that the already well adapted 
wild bison will come back from areas like Yellowstone. Any cattle 
interbreeding with bison will have a better chance of survival than 
pure breeds. Conclusion: they will survive probably assuming that what 
ever kills us off leaves all other mammals alive

Buy american beef! Angus diet and all that.

Frank Bliss
MS, Biostratigraphy
Weston, Wyoming
www.cattleranch.org


On Oct 16, 2004, at 8:21 PM, Dr. Darrin T. Milne B.Sc., D.C. wrote:

> In the fictional book 'Evolution' by Stephen Baxter, he writes about a
> possible future (post-homo sapiens) where huge herbivores roam the 
> earth
> which are the descendents of goats and cows (as well as rabbits now 
> that I
> remember). While this is hypothetical, I was always under the 
> impression
> that, if humans were to become suddenly extinct, certain extant 
> domesticated
> species (specifically the cow) would follow because of their 
> dependence on
> man. Does anyone have a idea if domesticated cows could become feral 
> and
> ultimately survive in the absence of man?
>
> Darrin